Earthquake. Tremor. Upheaval. Metro Manila is a bustling megacity of over 14 million people that rests on a ticking geological time bomb. The West Valley Fault, which traverses the heart of the metropolis, is ripe for a major movement. Seismologists warn that this fault moves roughly every 400 to 500 years. The last major earthquake occurred in 1658. This means that the region is well within the window for a magnitude 7.2 earthquake, colloquially feared as the “Big One.” According to the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study, a disaster of this scale could instantly claim over 34,000 lives, injure 110,000 people, and collapse thousands of structures. Preparing for this inevitable catastrophe is not merely a policy option. It is an urgent matter of survival. To withstand the “Big One,” Metro Manila must rapidly shift from reactive disaster response to proactive, systemic resilience by fortifying infrastructure, integrating institutional governance, and embedding a culture of grassroots preparedness. The first and most critical pillar of preparation is the aggressive retrofitting of physical infrastructure. Metro Manila’s skyline is a mix of modern, engineered high-rises and dense, informal settlements. The greatest threat to human life is structural failure. The government must enforce strict compliance with the National Structural Code of the Philippines, particularly for buildings constructed before the 1992 updates. Microzonation studies must guide urban planning, ensuring that no new structures are built directly on top of the fault line trace. Public infrastructure such as bridges, elevated highways, hospitals, and schools must undergo urgent seismic upgrades. Lifelines, including water pipelines, electrical grids, and telecommunications systems, require built-in redundancies. If the waterlines snap, the metropolis faces firestorms and dehydration. Transitioning to decentralized, earthquake-resilient utility systems will prevent the immediate collapse of urban functionality following the initial tremors. Simultaneously, institutional governance must bridge municipal boundaries to create a unified command structure. Metro Manila is fragmented into 16 cities and one municipality, each operating with significant autonomy. A magnitude 7.2 earthquake will not respect political borders. It will instantly isolate sectors due to collapsed bridges and blocked roads, effectively splitting the metropolis into four isolated quadrants as predicted by disaster analysts. The Metropolitan Manila Development Authority must be empowered to act as a centralized supreme command unit during crises. Emergency response assets, satellite communication systems, and medical stockpiles must be pre-positioned across all four quadrants. This ensures that if the north is cut off from the south, each sector can operate self-sufficiently. Furthermore, regular unannounced large-scale drills that simulate collapsed roads and total communication blackouts are necessary to test the actual readiness of local government units (LGUs). While structural and institutional frameworks form the backbone of defense, the ultimate line of survival lies at the grassroots level. A top-down approach is insufficient if individual citizens do not know what to do when the ground shakes. Public education campaigns must move beyond the standard “duck, cover, and hold” drills. Communities must be trained in localized mapping, identifying safe open spaces, and establishing family communication plans that do not rely on cellular networks. Every barangay must possess its own localized emergency response team with basic search-and-rescue tools. Moreover, psychological preparedness must be integrated into community training. Panic kills as efficiently as falling debris. By empowering citizens with actionable knowledge and regular practice, the collective anxiety surrounding the “Big One” can be transformed into a disciplined, coordinated civic response. A catastrophic earthquake would paralyze the national economy. Economic resilience requires proactive measures, such as businesses backing up data in alternative locations and the government securing catastrophe bonds for liquidity, before a major disaster hits. Debris management plans, temporary housing strategies, and field hospital logistics must be finalized today. Survival is only the first phase. The speed at which the metropolis can recover and rebuild will dictate the long-term future of the nation. The threat of the “Big One” is a certain geological reality, not a matter of if, but when. Metro Manila cannot prevent the shifting of the tectonic plates, but it can control how it receives the shockwaves. Transforming the metropolis into an earthquake-resilient sanctuary requires a massive, sustained allocation of wealth, political will, and civic discipline. It demands that structural codes be strictly enforced, LGUs operate as a single cohesive unit, citizens become active first responders, and economic contingency plans be secured. The cost of comprehensive preparation is high, but the cost of inaction is immeasurable. Metro Manila must act now. Every day of delay is a day stolen from our chance at survival. Source: plus.inquirer.net

By Kristina Maralit , William B. Depasupil and Catherine S. Valente THE government on Thursday said the country’s reclassification by the World Bank as an upper-middle-income economy would create more jobs, attract investments and expand opportunities for Filipinos, but labor groups challenged it to show that the newly attained status would benefit ordinary Filipinos by supporting higher wages. The Philippines was among five economies that moved from lower-middle to upper-middle-income status this year, joining Jordan, Micronesia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. In a statement, Executive Secretary Ralph Recto said the new classification is not just a title, but proof that the country’s economy is continuing to improve. “More jobs are being created, the income of our fellow citizens is increasing and more investors are placing their trust in the Philippines,” he said in Filipino. The World Bank reclassified the Philippines as an upper-middle-income economy after the country’s gross national income (GNI) per capita reached $4,850 in 2025, per estimates made by the Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev), surpassing the institution’s upper-middle-income threshold of $4,636. GNI per capita measures the economic output per citizen, consisting of both domestic and international earnings. A higher GNI per capita ranging from $4,516 to $14,005. The Philippines had remained a lower-middle-income economy since 1987 before its latest reclassification. The World Bank said the country’s ascent to upper-middle-income status was driven by broad-based economic growth, with the Philippine economy posting an average annual gross domestic product growth of 5.8 percent over the past five years. “The true measure of success is whether every Filipino family feels it. That is why we will not stop until more Filipinos rise out of poverty and their lives become easier,” Recto said. But the Trade Union Congress of the Philippines (TUCP), the biggest confederation of labor groups, said the government should stop blocking proposals for a legislated wage increase and instead ensure that the gains of economic growth reach more than 5 million minimum wage earners and millions of other low- and middle-income workers. The challenge came after the DEPDev announced the change in the country’s status. DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the development reflects the resilience of the Philippine economy, citing sustained growth, sound macroeconomic management and structural reforms. Balisacan, however, acknowledged that income disparities remain and that many Filipinos continue to face economic hardship despite the country’s economic progress. TUCP argued that the new classification rings hollow for workers who continue to struggle with rising costs and stagnant incomes. “We cannot celebrate being an upper-middle-income country while millions of Filipino workers continue to live on low wages,” the labor group said. The federation also criticized what it described as the government’s long-standing opposition to a legislated wage hike, noting that no nationwide legislated increase has been enacted in nearly four decades. According to TUCP, economic growth cannot be considered inclusive if wealth continues to be concentrated among the richest sectors while many workers and poor families are left behind. The group pointed out that minimum wages across the country remain far below the reported national income level, with daily pay ranging from P411 in the Bangsamoro region to P780 in Metro Manila beginning next year. By comparison, TUCP noted that the country’s reported GNI per capita translates to roughly P820 a day, highlighting what it described as the disconnect between economic indicators and workers’ actual earnings. With only two years left in the Marcos administration, TUCP urged the government to move beyond acknowledging inequality and take concrete steps to raise wages and improve the lives of Filipino workers, warning that economic milestones mean little if they fail to translate into tangible benefits for ordinary families. Vote of confidence President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who was in Canada for an official visit, on Thursday welcomed the Philippines’ attainment of upper-middle-income status, saying the milestone is a “vote of confidence in our country’s future.” In a video message, Marcos said the new classification reflected the effectiveness of economic policies and reforms implemented over the past four years. “For years, Filipinos have worked hard to build this country. Today, the world has taken notice. The Philippines has officially become an upper-middle-income country,” Marcos said. “After nearly four decades as a lower-middle-income country since 1987, this milestone affirms that the economic policies we have pursued over the past four years have been effective,” he added. Marcos said that the Philippines’ steady economic growth, broadly stable currency and long-term reforms have strengthened our economy even amid global uncertainties. He also said that it validated the progress we have made and the resilience of the Filipino people. “It is also a vote of confidence in our country’s future. Greater confidence means more investments. More investments mean more businesses, better quality jobs and more opportunities for Filipino families,” Marcos said. “This is worth celebrating because economic progress is not meant to stay on paper. It is meant to open doors, put food on the table and give every Filipino the chance to build a better life,” he added. Marcos said the administration would continue implementing policies aimed at ensuring that the gains from economic growth are felt by Filipinos. “That is the work we will continue to do until every family feels the benefits of our country’s progress,” he said. Govt priorities To sustain economic growth, Recto said the administration will continue efforts to tame inflation, protect jobs, strengthen consumers’ purchasing power, boost business confidence and attract more investments. He said the government will accelerate the implementation of major infrastructure projects in the second half of the year, continue rolling out the targeted Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food and Transport program to cushion the effects of the hostilities in the Middle East, efficiently implement the 2026 national budget and finalize a responsive spending plan for 2027. The administration will also pursue and implement reforms to improve the ease of doing business, expand digital connectivity, enhance education and workforce skills, and strengthen resilience against climate-related risks and external shocks, Recto added. As the Philippines transitions to upper-middle-income status and gradually relies less on concessional financing, Recto said the government will expand the use of public-private partnerships, deepen domestic capital markets and tap market-based financing sources to sustain infrastructure and development investments. He did not mention the drive for higher wages, however. With the upgrade, the Philippines joins regional upper-middle-income economies such as China, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. Source: www.manilatimes.net

The Philippine Insurers and Reinsurers Association (PIRA) is calling on insurers to overhaul war-risk underwriting, strengthen investment and currency hedging strategies, and introduce relief measures for policyholders as oil prices surge and geopolitical risks intensify following the Middle East conflict. The Philippines is one of the economies most vulnerable to conflict in the Middle East, as it imports 98% of its oil from the region, prompting it to be the first country in the world to declare a state of national energy emergency and pass a law allowing the President to suspend or reduce fuel excise taxes. According to findings from a position paper by the Philippine Insurers and Reinsurers Association (PIRA), submitted to Manila’s Insurance Commission, crude oil by mid-March 2026 soared to nearly $115 per barrel from $72 before the war. Reviewing policies In light of this, the trade association has suggested policies insurers can implement to protect their bottom line. The paper stated that “war-risk endorsements need to be rewritten, policies covering vessels and cargo in newly designated high-risk zones require urgent amendments, sanctions and restricted-jurisdiction checks must be run against thousands of counterparties, and reinsurance exposure aggregations must be recalculated and reported.” Strict application of war exclusions going forward is also seen as warranted. PIRA said new and renewing policies, especially marine cargo and hull, should have their war risk clauses reviewed and tightened. “Additional premium endorsements should be required for any such risks accepted,” the group added. PIRA also recommended voyage-by-voyage underwriting for marine cargo, replacing blanket annual policies for importers operating Middle East supply chains. Instead of relying on fixed, long-term coverage, insurers are shifting towards route-specific assessments for high-risk shipments. While cargo war risk cover remains available, premiums are rising and are now being reassessed on a voyage-by-voyage basis, particularly for energy and bulk commodity trades. This approach ensures pricing is aligned with real-time geopolitical and security risks rather than pre-crisis assumptions. PIRA also urged motor claims severity management. “With pump prices jumping by PHP43.50 ($0.71) per litre for gasoline and PHP67.35 per litre for diesel since the war began, repair and parts costs are escalating. Insurers should negotiate volume agreements with repair shops to lock in labour rates, accelerate adoption of cash settlement options, and review total loss thresholds to reflect new vehicle replacement values in a high-inflation environment.” Defending the investment portfolio Insurers should also adopt a more defensive investment strategy. PIRA said this could be achieved by shortening the duration of fixed-income portfolios and shifting allocations towards shorter-term government securities and money market instruments to reduce exposure to mark-to-market volatility, especially as rising yields—such as the 10-year bond reaching 4.46%, its highest since July 2025—signal pressure on long-dated assets. With the peso at a record low, insurers with significant dollar-denominated reinsurance premiums payable or dollar-benchmarked claims should hedge their foreign exchange exposure through BSP-approved forward contracts or natural hedges where possible, PIRA added. Reinsurance and risk transfer PIRA called for early reinsurance treaty renewal engagement before renewal dates, “to lock in capacity and rates before the market hardens further”, and the exploration of parametric and political risk products. “Philippine non-life insurers should explore ceding their geopolitical tail risk through parametric reinsurance treaties triggered by defined events (e.g., Brent crude exceeding $100/bbl for more than 30 consecutive days), protecting against systemic correlated losses.” It also noted that the industry should consider a temporary war-risk pool—similar to the PCIC for agriculture or PAGCOR-related pooling mechanisms—where participating non-life insurers collectively underwrite and share Philippine-originated war-risk exposures, reducing single-company concentration risk. Operational efficiency To improve operational efficiency, PIRA advised insurers to accelerate digital claims processing, capitalising on AI-assisted document review and remote loss assessment tools to ensure faster settlements, improved accuracy, and lower operational costs amid rising claims volumes. At the same time, insurers should enhance scalability by engaging third-party service providers for claims handling and policy administration, allowing them to manage potential surges in war-related claims and policy adjustments without permanently increasing staffing. Relief for policyholders PIRA also outlined measures to help policyholders cope with the ongoing conflict. These include structured premium deferral programmes offered to qualified policyholders—particularly operators, small businesses, and agriculture-dependent clients affected by rising fuel prices—allowing premium payments to be deferred by up to 90 days without policy lapse. It also suggested that insurers temporarily suspend policy cancellations for non-payment and allow clients to switch annual payment terms to quarterly or monthly instalments without penalty. Insurers are also encouraged to identify and offer rate concessions to sectors most directly affected, including inter-island shipping, public utility vehicles, agricultural cooperatives, and OFW families. These segments are also the most likely to lapse without support, potentially worsening loss ratios through adverse selection. PIRA further recommended establishing a dedicated war-crisis claims desk with expedited turnaround times of 15 to 30 days. “Digital submission of claims documentation should be maximised to reduce in-person requirements,” the position paper said. The study added that the applicability of war exclusion clauses is highly dependent on policy wording and the connection of losses to armed operations. Insurers are urged to proactively issue clear written advisories outlining what is and is not covered, including how indirect losses such as fuel shortages, supply chain disruptions, and economic impacts will be treated. This will help reduce disputes and improve transparency for policyholders. Source: www.asiainsurancereview.com

The Philippine pre-need industry saw its total net worth increase by 12.18% to PHP32.36bn ($528m) at the end of the first quarter of 2026, from PHP28.84bn recorded in the same period last year. Providing context for the increase, Philippine Insurance Commissioner Reynaldo Regalado said: “A significant contributor to this increase was the 18.99% growth in retained earnings, which accounted for 77.74% of the industry’s total net worth. This highlights the industry’s strong earnings generation and solid financial position.” Total assets also grew by 9.60% to PHP179.32bn from PHP163.61bn a year earlier. The increase was driven mainly by investments in trust funds, which accounted for 85.79% of total assets and expanded by 9.46% year on year. Meanwhile, total liabilities rose by 9.05% to PHP146.96bn, primarily due to a 9.32% increase in pre-need reserves, which comprised 90.91% of total liabilities. Total premium income increased by 12.31% to PHP6.53bn from PHP5.82bn in the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, the industry's total net income amounted to PHP140m, marking an 88.05% decline from the PHP1.17bn recorded in the same period last year. The decline was primarily due to lower income generated from trust funds. “The decrease in investment earnings reflects the impact of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, which have affected financial markets and investment performance. Increased market volatility and inflationary pressures also contributed to the decline in the industry’s net income,” Mr Regalado added. Furthermore, the number of plans sold during the quarter continued to rise, increasing by 11.92% to 244,233 from 218,218 in the first quarter of 2025. “Life and memorial plans continued to dominate sales, accounting for 99.92% of all plans sold during the quarter,” Mr Regalado also said. Source: www.asiainsurancereview.com

Model management took centre stage on the opening day of the 22nd Asia Nat CAT and Climate Change Conference in Makati City, as industry experts discussed how risk models can remain effective in an increasingly complex environment shaped by climate change and cyber threats. During a panel discussion, speakers highlighted the need for greater transparency and understanding of modelling methodologies. JBA Risk Management Technical Director Dr Pradeep Mandapaka stressed the importance of openness in model development to build confidence among users. “When incorporating the effects of climate change into models, end users need to know what is being changed and introduced. Transparency in methodology, documentation and data sets used will improve confidence in the model,” he said Gallagher Re Regional Director and Head of Analytics Hemant Nagpal said understanding models beyond the data itself is essential. He explained that his firm analyses new models in detail, comparing their components and outputs with other available models to determine whether they are fit for purpose and to help clients better understand their strengths and limitations. Mr Nagpal also highlighted the importance of tailoring models to clients’ specific requirements, including adjustments based on climate conditions and loss experiences. “If there’s a need for model adjustment, whether based on climate or losses, that should be considered,” he said. Taiping Reinsurance General Manager of the Analytics Centre Michael Fung agreed that models should be viewed as a guide rather than a definitive answer. “Insurance existed before models. Modelling is becoming more advanced and is ano her underwriting tool. We have to understand what is driving the results, the risks in the region and the data behind them. The model is a guideline, not the holy grail,” he said. Source: www.asiainsurancereview.com

On a Facebook post by the The Watchmen’s Earth and Space Connection, the Manila Trench swarm is a significant scientific event because of where it is occurring, but there is no confirmed indication that a major earthquake is imminent. Scientists will continue monitoring the swarm for changes in magnitude, frequency, and depth that could indicate evolving activity.

Insurance companies and other entities regulated by the Insurance Commission (IC) have been ordered to expedite the settlement of claims in areas declared under a state of calamity following the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck Mindanao. The directive from the Philippine insurance regulator requires regulated entities to accelerate the evaluation, approval and payment of claims whenever national or local authorities place an area under a state of calamity. To help affected policyholders access benefits more quickly, the circular also calls for more flexible claims procedures, including the relaxation of documentary requirements for losses and damage caused by disasters. The IC further instructed insurers to allow claimants additional time to submit notices of claims and supporting documents. Under the same directive, insurance providers are expected to assist policyholders throughout the claims process, maintain proper documentation of damage assessments to ensure faster claims resolution, and work closely with the government to expedite the process. Insurance Commissioner Reynaldo Regalado said, "Prompt claims settlement is not only a regulatory obligation but also a vital means of providing immediate financial assistance to communities, especially those that need to rebuild after a disastrous calamity." "Let us ensure that affected policyholders receive the support they need without any delay," he added. Source: www.asiainsurancereview.com

The strong tremor that hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao is expected to result in limited insured losses due to the country's low insurance penetration, according to a commentary by AM Best. On 8 June, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake rocked Mindanao, killing more than 40 people and causing significant destruction to infrastructure, homes and major roads. AM Best said that while the full scale of insured losses has yet to be assessed, it expects the persistent protection gap in the Philippines to limit insured losses to a small fraction of the overall economic damage. “The domestic non-life insurance market is expected to absorb the primary layer of exposure through a risk-sharing programme involving direct policies and the Philippine Catastrophe Insurance Facility,” AM Best said. AM Best added that while gross premiums written have continued to rise, the increase in net retention of catastrophe risks by primary insurers is a strategic response to balancing high reinsurance costs with profitability targets. However, this shift has led to heightened sensitivity to climate risks and exposed inaccuracies in traditional risk models. The last major earthquake in the Philippines occurred in 2013 in Bohol, causing an estimated $55m to $100m in insured losses. The Philippines is one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries and is frequently affected by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions due to its location along the Pacific Ring of Fire, an arc of seismic faults encircling the ocean. Source: www.asiainsurancereview.com