World Map Shows Where El Niño Will Hit Hard

El Niño conditions are expected to return and influence global temperatures and rainfall patterns, including in the United States, in the coming months, according to the United Nations.

The weather phenomenon, which is part of a recurring global weather cycle, has an 80 percent chance of forming between June and August this year and a 90 percent chance to do so before November, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN’s leading climate body, said on Tuesday.

The last El Niño cycle, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024, said the WMO. Forecast models suggest this next one will be at least moderate in strength, with the potential to become strong.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned the event should be treated as an “urgent climate warning,” saying El Niño “will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” with impacts that could intensify and spread rapidly across borders.

Where El Niño Is Expected To Hit Hardest

The WMO data showed that, from late April to mid-May, sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific — the key monitoring region—were approaching El Niño thresholds.

At the same time, the Southern Oscillation Index—the atmospheric component of El Niño—is also consistent with emerging El Niño conditions.

Forecasts suggest widespread impacts across much of the globe, with above-average temperatures likely in nearly all regions between June and August.

The WMO’s multi-model outlook shows particularly strong warming across large parts of the Pacific, Africa, Asia and the Americas, increasing the risk of heat waves and compounding climate hazards.

Rainfall patterns are also expe

ted to shift along typical El Niño lines, bringing wetter conditions to parts of the southern United States, southern South America, the Horn of Africa and central Asia,

Meanwhile, the likelihood of drier conditions across Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia and parts of southern Asia will increase.

Shifting ocean temperatures may also influence storm activity, with increased cyclone potential in the central and eastern Pacific while there could likely be a quieter Atlantic hurricane season.

Source: www.newsweek.com